Egypt Independent: World-Main news

Analysis: Crossing Obama's 'red line' on Syria will require concrete proof

Reuters — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 08:20:00 +0000

While President Barack Obama has declared a "red line" over Syrian use of chemical weapons, US officials suggested on Tuesday that Washington was unlikely to respond without clear-cut evidence of such use — evidence that may be very hard to come by.

Israel's top military intelligence analyst said in Tel Aviv on Tuesday that Syrian government forces had used chemical weapons — probably the nerve gas sarin — in their fight against rebels trying to force out President Bashar al-Assad.

He cited photographic evidence of victims foaming at the mouth, their pupils contracted.

The Israeli allegations, which came during a week-long visit by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel to the Middle East, followed similar concerns of chemical weapons use voiced by Britain and France.

But so far, those assessments appear to lack the concrete proof Washington would need to accept the kind of deeper US involvement in Syria's civil war that Obama has resisted. That, in turn, raises questions about just how well-defined the president's "red line" is.

White House spokesman Jay Carney walked a cautious line speaking to reporters, making clear that Washington was taking the Israeli accusations seriously but would require "conclusive evidence" before deciding whether to move forward.

"We have not come to the conclusion that there has been that use," Carney said. "But it is something that is of great concern to us, to our partners, and, obviously, unacceptable as the president made clear."

A senior US defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that "low confidence" assessments by foreign governments could not be the basis for US action.

Officials appeared to play down the extent of any evidence of chemical weapons use provided by British and French diplomats in a letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon's office on 21 March. An Obama administration official noted it was based on second-hand sources and third-party information.

"The letter did not provide conclusive evidence of chemical weapons use, but did request a UN investigation into all allegations of use in Syria," the defense official said.

A UN team of specialists has been prevented from going to Syria to investigate the claims because of a dispute with the Damascus government over access.

Memories in Iraq

On a visit to Israel last month, Obama said of reports the Syrian government may have used chemical weapons, "Once we've established the facts, I have made clear the use of chemical weapons is a game-changer."

The Obama administration's determination to avoid committing itself without air-tight proof, plus international backing, is due in part to the lessons of Iraq, a source close to White House policymaking said recently.

Then, the George W. Bush administration used faulty intelligence to justify the Iraq invasion in pursuit of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons that turned out not to exist.

"There will be no rush to judgment," the source said.

US officials and experts have cited the difficulty for the United States in confirming chemical weapons use in Syria.

For example, officials have said they are reluctant to give much credence to information on alleged chemical weapons use that emanates from the Syrian opposition, considering such claims suspect because of a vested interest to get Washington involved militarily.

So far, the United States has limited itself to mostly non-military support for the opposition. Last weekend, Secretary of State John Kerry announced a new package of non-lethal aid partly destined to rebel fighters. That has fallen far short, however, of what some US lawmakers, US allies like Britain and France and Syrian opposition leaders themselves have sought.

Washington could face further criticism if it is perceived to have failed to enforce Obama's chemical weapons ultimatum to Assad, who has clung to power despite repeated US calls to step down.

Raymond Zilinskas, a chemical and biological weapons expert at the Monterey Institute's James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, said photographic evidence cited by the Israeli official — with victims foaming at the mouth — showed symptoms consistent with the use of a nerve agent such as sarin gas.

But he questioned whether photographic evidence alone could prove chemical weapons use.

"The difficult part is — what you really need are samples," said Zilinskas.

Sarin or other nerve agents would linger in blood and tissue samples for some time, and probably longer in hair samples, he said. "That's almost like a smoking gun."

It is not known if Western intelligence agencies, perhaps with aid from Syrian rebels, have procured biological or soil samples from the sites of the alleged attacks last month.

Even if proof of chemical weapons use met Washington's standards of proof, US action might further be delayed while intelligence analysts try to figure out how widespread it was — a factor that would determine the extent of any US response.

While contingency plans have been crafted, US officials have continued grappling with questions such as whether US forces would be able to locate enough of Assad's stockpile and whether the material could be "safe-guarded" inside Syria in the midst of civil war or whether it would have to be taken out.

Another wild card could be how Israel might respond. Carney declined to answer a question whether the White House had been aware that Israel would go public with the accusation on Tuesday and whether it was prudent to do so.

The source close to White House policymaking speculated that Israel may have gone public with its findings to send a message to Assad that its military had Syria's chemical weapons stockpile in its sights, and would not hesitate to take action if deemed necessary to secure it.

Canada train plot suspects in court, will fight charges

Reuters — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 08:17:00 +0000

TORONTO/MONTREAL — Two men charged with an alleged Al-Qaeda-backed plot to derail a Canadian passenger train made their first court appearances on Tuesday, and the lawyer for one said his client would fight the charges vigorously.

Raed Jaser, 35, of Toronto and Chiheb Esseghaier, 30, of Montreal face charges that include conspiring with each other "to murder unknown persons ... for the benefit of, at the direction of, or in association with a terrorist group."

They were arrested on Monday in separate raids after what police said was a joint Canada-US investigation that started in the middle of last year after a tip from a member of the Muslim community.

Officers detained Jaser at his home, a semi-detached house in a north Toronto neighborhood, and arrested Esseghaier at a McDonald's restaurant at Montreal's main train station.

Canadian police said the plot involved a passenger train route in the Toronto area, and that there had been no immediate threat to rail passengers or to the public.

US officials said that the suspects were believed to have worked on a plan involving blowing up a trestle on the Canadian side of the border as the Maple Leaf, Amtrak's daily connection between Toronto and New York, passed over it.

They said investigators on both sides of the border were trying to establish if the suspects had associates in the United States, especially in New York City. One source said Esseghaier, in particular, was believed to have made several trips to the United States. CBC Television said Canadian police had tracked him for a year, including on a visit to a conference in Mexico.

In custody

Jaser, heavily bearded and wearing a black cap, was remanded in custody after a brief hearing in Toronto. Media were barred from giving details of Jaser's hearing under a publication ban requested by his lawyer.

"He denies the allegations and he will vigorously defend them," said the lawyer, John Norris, who has represented Canadian Guantanamo detainee Omar Khadr, as well as Asad Ansari, one of a group of Toronto-area men charged in 2006 with planning attacks on Canadian targets.

Norris would not disclose Jaser's nationality, saying the publication ban precluded discussing Jaser's personal circumstances. He said Jaser has been a resident of Canada for 20 years.

Norris questioned the timing of the arrests, given a statement by police that the suspects posed no imminent threat. He noted that the arrest coincided with debate in Canada over a vote that would revive parts of the anti-terrorism act, which is supported by the Conservative government.

"The timing of the arrest is a bit of a mystery," he said.

Denying the charges

Outside the courtroom, a middle-aged man and a woman in a cream-colored hijab identified themselves as members of Jaser's family, but would not answer questions.

With them were two younger men, and two women in full black niqab face veils, who fled when confronted with a throng of reporters, photographers and television crews.

Neighbors of Jaser told Reuters that he mostly kept to himself and attended a Masjid al-Faisal, a mosque in a refashioned house a short walk from his home.

"He was a normal attendee. If he's coming he says 'salaam' to us and we say 'salaam' to him. Nothing more special, nothing more unusual, nothing more abnormal," said Rana Khan, a congregant at the mosque. His alleged involvement in a plot was "a very, very shocking news for all of us over here."

Esseghaier, a Tunisian-born doctoral student at a Montreal-area university, was flown to Toronto on Monday, but was quickly returned to Montreal to meet a legal requirement that he appear in a Quebec court within 24 hours of his arrest.

Bearded and bespectacled and wearing a shabby blue-and-black winter jacket, handcuffs and leg shackles, he told the judge there that conclusions had been drawn from facts and words "that are only appearances."

A spokeswoman for the Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique near Montreal confirmed to Reuters that Esseghaier was a doctoral student at the research institute.

At the hearing he was remanded in custody, and federal prosecutor Richard Roy said he expected Esseghaier to be flown back to Toronto later on Tuesday for a court appearance there.

Esseghaier represented himself at the hearing, which was not covered by a publication ban.

Canadian authorities have linked the two men to Al-Qaeda factions in Iran. But they said there was no indication of Iranian state-sponsorship of the plan, which police described as the first known Al-Qaeda-backed plot on Canadian soil.

Deaths or injuries foreseen

"Had this plot been carried out, it would have resulted in innocent people being killed or seriously injured," Royal Canadian Mounted Police official James Malizia said on Monday.

Iran had some senior Al-Qaeda figures under a form of house arrest in the years following the September 11, 2001, attacks, but there has been little to no evidence to date of joint attempts to execute violence against the West.

However, a US government source said Iran is home to a little-known network of alleged Al-Qaeda fixers and "facilitators" based in the city of Zahedan, very close to Iran's borders with both Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Iran reacted angrily to being tied to the arrests. Canada last year severed diplomatic ties over what it said was Iran's support for terrorist groups, as well as its nuclear programme and its hostility toward Israel.

"No shred of evidence regarding those who've been arrested and stand accused has been provided," Iranian Foreign Minister spokesman Ramin Mehmanparast said, according to the Mehr news agency.

Turkey PM refuses to delay Gaza trip

Reuters — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 15:41:00 +0000

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will not reschedule his trip to the Palestinian Gaza strip, he said on Tuesday, despite a request to do so from the United States that had irked Ankara.

During a visit to Turkey on Sunday, US Secretary of State John Kerry urged Erdogan to delay his visit to avoid endangering US efforts to revive Ankara's ties with Israel as well as Middle East peace talks.

Erdogan, who has always underlined his desire to visit the Palestinian enclave, said last week he planned to go to Gaza following an official visit to the United States in May.

"Delaying my trip [to Gaza] is out of question. As I said in the past the Gaza trip will take place after my trip to the United States. There will be no delay," Erdogan told reporters, according to state media.

Erdogan's trip would take place at a critical period for Turkish-Israeli relations, frozen after the 2010 killing by Israeli marines of nine Turks aboard a Gaza-bound aid ship.

In March, US President Barack Obama brokered a first step in reconciliation between Israel and Turkey, which cut its once extensive ties with the Jewish state after the incident.

Persuaded by Obama, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apologized last month and an Israeli delegation traveled to Ankara on Monday to discuss compensating the victims' families.

Erdogan said his trip to Washington would be on 14 May, while Turkish officials said earlier this month that his planned visit to Washington to meet Obama was on 16 May.

Iraqi forces clash with protesters; 27 dead, army says

AFP — Tue, 23 Apr 2013 08:46:00 +0000

Clashes on Tuesday in north Iraq between security forces and anti-government protesters allegedly infiltrated by militants left 27 people dead and about 70 injured, top army officers said.

The clashes are just the latest violence between security forces and demonstrators in recent months, and will likely further increase tensions between protesters and the government.

They broke out around 5:00 am when security forces entered an open area in Hawijah, west of Kirkuk, where demonstrations have been held since January, the high-ranking officers said.

One of the officers, a brigadier general from the division responsible for the area, said the operation was aimed at Sunni militants from a group known as the Naqshbandiya Army, and that security forces only opened fire after they were fired upon.

A second officer said that 34 Kalashnikov assault rifles and four PKM machineguns were recovered at the scene.

Two soldiers were killed and seven wounded in the operation, they said. The remainder were some combination of protesters and militants, according to the army officers.

The violence came just hours after United Nations envoy Martin Kobler called for restraint on both sides in Hawijah, where tensions have been ratcheting up.

"I encourage the Iraqi security forces to exercise the utmost self-restraint in maintaining law and order and the demonstrators to continue to preserve the peaceful character of the demonstrations," Kobler said in a statement.

Protesters have taken to the streets in Sunni-majority areas of Iraq for more than four months, calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and decrying the alleged targeting of their minority community by the Shia-led authorities.

Tuesday was not the first time that the demonstrations have turned deadly — security forces killed a protester in the north Iraq city of Mosul on 8 March, and eight demonstrators near Fallujah, west of Baghdad, on 25 January.