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Syria-linked clashes kill six in Lebanese city: security

AFP — Thu, 23 May 2013 13:02:00 +0000

Fighting in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli killed at least six people overnight, as supporters and opponents of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad clashed, a security source said on Thursday.

"Very violent fighting took place last night until 5:00 am (0200 GMT) that killed six people and wounded 40. The clashes and shelling affected several areas of the city, including the centre," the source told AFP.

Violence has regularly broken out in the city since the beginning of Syria's uprising, pitting residents of the Sunni district of Bab el-Tebbaneh against those from the neighbouring Alawite area of Jabal Mohsen.

But since Sunday, shelling and clashes have spread to other mostly Sunni areas of the city, killing 17 people including two soldiers and wounding 150 others.

Amin al-Qabbut, mukhtar (municipal official) of the Sunni Al-Qobba area, said areas of the city last attacked during the Syrian army's bombardment of the city in 1985 were being shelled again.

"This war is the continuation of the 1985 war that Syria waged against us," Qabbut said.

In 1985, the Syrian army clashed with Sunni groups in Tripoli, and bombarded areas of the city.

"The political tool used to wage the war is the same, it is the Arab Democratic Party," Qabbut said, referring to the party linked to Tripoli's Alawite community.

The ADP has, in return, accused Sunni groups of starting the fighting.

The largely Sunni city is home to a small community of Alawites, an offshoot of Shiite Islam to which Syrian President Bashar al-Assad belongs.

The latest violence began as the Assad regime launched a withering assault on the rebel stronghold of Qusayr, near the border with Lebanon.

Syria opposition to mull peace talks

AFP — Thu, 23 May 2013 08:41:00 +0000

Syria's main opposition group gathers Thursday for a landmark conference in Istanbul, Turkey, to discuss peace talks with the regime, as rebels on the ground suffer a massive army onslaught.

The National Coalition's fresh round of talks is set to run for three days.

It is the opposition group's first meeting since the United States and Russia announced a peace initiative dubbed Geneva 2 to end the two-year conflict that has killed more than 90,000 people.

The meeting comes a day after backers of the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad gathered in Amman to push forward Geneva 2, which would bring rebels and regime representatives in mid-June to the negotiating table.

In their closing statement early Thursday, the Friends of Syria group told Assad to commit to peace, warning that they would boost their backing of the opposition if he failed to negotiate a political transition.

The opposition's agenda for Istanbul is packed with controversial questions, and whether the group can make a final decision on Geneva 2 remains doubtful, opponents say.

It is under pressure from its international backers to enter talks with the Assad regime, but if it complies risks losing what little legitimacy it has left on the ground.

"The Coalition and (key opposition movement) the Syrian National Council have made clear their condition to any talks is the resignation of Bashar al-Assad," Coalition member Samir Nashar told AFP.

"I think the revolutionaries would turn their back totally on the political opposition" should this condition remain unfulfilled, he added.

Former opposition leader and prominent Coalition member Abdel Basset Sayda insisted Assad's departure was still a precondition for any talks.

"All political crises end with a political solution, but the question for us is what kind of solution is acceptable," Sayda told AFP.

Opponents "maintain our position that there will be no negotiation with the regime that does not come with the fall of Assad".

Assad appears as far as ever from giving up, however: in an interview with an Argentinian newspaper this month, he implied that he would stay until the next scheduled election in 2014.

The Istanbul meeting comes as rebels in the central Syrian town of Qusayr face a massive onslaught by the army and elite Lebanese Shiite Hezbollah troops.

"The regime and its backers are trying to change the situation on the ground militarily, in order to gain the upper hand in negotiations," Nashar said.

"That's why Hezbollah and Iran are intervening in such an open way. Again, this is costing the Syrians blood."

On Wednesday, acting Coalition chief George Sabra called on rebels across Syria to "rush to the rescue" of Qusayr, and appealed to the international community to set up a humanitarian corridor to the embattled town.

At the Amman meeting, US Secretary of State John Kerry urged Assad to commit to peace ahead of talks.

Kerry said that "in the event that we can't find that way forward, in the event that the Assad regime is unwilling to negotiate... in good faith, we will also talk about our continued support and our growing support for the opposition".

His British counterpart William Hague said that only Assad's departure could clear the way for a settlement.

The aim of Geneva 2, Hague stressed, would be to agree on the formation of "a transitional government with full executive authority, formed on the basis of mutual consent."

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius agreed.

"There are some conditions and in particular conditions about participation, which must be representative and which must not include countries which are against success," he said, an apparent allusion to Assad ally Iran.

Sabra, for the Coalition, only received a last-minute invitation to Amman. He was due back in Istanbul in time for Thursday's talks.

The opposition has other difficult issues on its agenda. Dissidents aim to name a new Coalition president to replace Ahmad Moaz al-Khatib, who resigned in March, as well as three new vice-presidents and a new secretary-general, a Coalition official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

The opposition is seeking to establish a rebel government under interim prime minister Ghassan Hitto, while discussing the group's expansion to include 31 new members, the source added.

That expansion comes after pressures for a more inclusive opposition from Coalition backers, he added.

Hitto has pulled together a list of ministries and representatives for all but the interior and defence portfolios -- but his proposals may not even see the light as he too may end up being replaced, the official said.

Gunmen kill 12 at Baghdad brothel, say officials

AFP — Wed, 22 May 2013 14:20:00 +0000

Unknown gunmen shot dead at least seven women and five men at a brothel in Baghdad on Wednesday, security and medical officials said.

The attack took place in the capital's eastern area of Zayouna, where a number of brothels are located.

An interior ministry official said the gunmen burst into the establishment early in the afternoon and opened fire.

Both prostitution and alcohol are prohibited by Islam, the religion of the vast majority of Iraq's population.

Zayouna is an upmarket, mixed district of Sunni and Shiite Muslims where a number of brothels opened in the relatively quiet recent years.

Violence in Iraq has fallen from its peak in 2006 and 2007, but attacks remain common. More than 200 people have been killed in each of the first five months of this year.

With the latest attack, 399 people have been killed so far this month, according to AFP figures based on reports from security and medical officials.

Analysis: Crossing Obama's 'red line' on Syria will require concrete proof

Reuters — Wed, 24 Apr 2013 08:20:00 +0000

While President Barack Obama has declared a "red line" over Syrian use of chemical weapons, US officials suggested on Tuesday that Washington was unlikely to respond without clear-cut evidence of such use — evidence that may be very hard to come by.

Israel's top military intelligence analyst said in Tel Aviv on Tuesday that Syrian government forces had used chemical weapons — probably the nerve gas sarin — in their fight against rebels trying to force out President Bashar al-Assad.

He cited photographic evidence of victims foaming at the mouth, their pupils contracted.

The Israeli allegations, which came during a week-long visit by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel to the Middle East, followed similar concerns of chemical weapons use voiced by Britain and France.

But so far, those assessments appear to lack the concrete proof Washington would need to accept the kind of deeper US involvement in Syria's civil war that Obama has resisted. That, in turn, raises questions about just how well-defined the president's "red line" is.

White House spokesman Jay Carney walked a cautious line speaking to reporters, making clear that Washington was taking the Israeli accusations seriously but would require "conclusive evidence" before deciding whether to move forward.

"We have not come to the conclusion that there has been that use," Carney said. "But it is something that is of great concern to us, to our partners, and, obviously, unacceptable as the president made clear."

A senior US defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that "low confidence" assessments by foreign governments could not be the basis for US action.

Officials appeared to play down the extent of any evidence of chemical weapons use provided by British and French diplomats in a letter to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon's office on 21 March. An Obama administration official noted it was based on second-hand sources and third-party information.

"The letter did not provide conclusive evidence of chemical weapons use, but did request a UN investigation into all allegations of use in Syria," the defense official said.

A UN team of specialists has been prevented from going to Syria to investigate the claims because of a dispute with the Damascus government over access.

Memories in Iraq

On a visit to Israel last month, Obama said of reports the Syrian government may have used chemical weapons, "Once we've established the facts, I have made clear the use of chemical weapons is a game-changer."

The Obama administration's determination to avoid committing itself without air-tight proof, plus international backing, is due in part to the lessons of Iraq, a source close to White House policymaking said recently.

Then, the George W. Bush administration used faulty intelligence to justify the Iraq invasion in pursuit of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons that turned out not to exist.

"There will be no rush to judgment," the source said.

US officials and experts have cited the difficulty for the United States in confirming chemical weapons use in Syria.

For example, officials have said they are reluctant to give much credence to information on alleged chemical weapons use that emanates from the Syrian opposition, considering such claims suspect because of a vested interest to get Washington involved militarily.

So far, the United States has limited itself to mostly non-military support for the opposition. Last weekend, Secretary of State John Kerry announced a new package of non-lethal aid partly destined to rebel fighters. That has fallen far short, however, of what some US lawmakers, US allies like Britain and France and Syrian opposition leaders themselves have sought.

Washington could face further criticism if it is perceived to have failed to enforce Obama's chemical weapons ultimatum to Assad, who has clung to power despite repeated US calls to step down.

Raymond Zilinskas, a chemical and biological weapons expert at the Monterey Institute's James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, said photographic evidence cited by the Israeli official — with victims foaming at the mouth — showed symptoms consistent with the use of a nerve agent such as sarin gas.

But he questioned whether photographic evidence alone could prove chemical weapons use.

"The difficult part is — what you really need are samples," said Zilinskas.

Sarin or other nerve agents would linger in blood and tissue samples for some time, and probably longer in hair samples, he said. "That's almost like a smoking gun."

It is not known if Western intelligence agencies, perhaps with aid from Syrian rebels, have procured biological or soil samples from the sites of the alleged attacks last month.

Even if proof of chemical weapons use met Washington's standards of proof, US action might further be delayed while intelligence analysts try to figure out how widespread it was — a factor that would determine the extent of any US response.

While contingency plans have been crafted, US officials have continued grappling with questions such as whether US forces would be able to locate enough of Assad's stockpile and whether the material could be "safe-guarded" inside Syria in the midst of civil war or whether it would have to be taken out.

Another wild card could be how Israel might respond. Carney declined to answer a question whether the White House had been aware that Israel would go public with the accusation on Tuesday and whether it was prudent to do so.

The source close to White House policymaking speculated that Israel may have gone public with its findings to send a message to Assad that its military had Syria's chemical weapons stockpile in its sights, and would not hesitate to take action if deemed necessary to secure it.