As Ukrainian and Russian officials prepare to potentially meet in Turkey, Russia is amassing forces on the frontlines for a possible new offensive intended to capture more Ukrainian territory, two US officials with knowledge of the latest US assessments told CNN.
Russian commanders “aspire to generate a big force,” the first US official said, adding that the likely offensive is focused on gaining more ground in eastern Ukraine.
“Putin will attempt to take whatever land he can get right up to the outskirts of Kyiv,” the second US official said. “The Russians are going to make every effort to get what they can.”
The preparations come as Ukraine is suffering a major manpower shortage on the battlefield. US assessments show that it is largely Ukrainian drone capabilities and the effectiveness of its minefields that are holding back Russia despite its sizable manpower advantage, both in Eastern Ukraine and inside Russia’s Kursk region where Ukrainian forces still maintain a foothold.
Russia is having its own challenges amassing the forces it would like, as the two sides have continued a grinding and deadly war of attrition in eastern Ukraine. In addition, the first official told CNN that there is no indication that North Korea is currently able to significantly increase its own troops levels in Ukraine, following the loss of thousands of its soldiers in the fighting. However, for weeks now, US assessments have shown little change in Russia’s war aims, including taking control of more Ukrainian territory, despite the Trump administration urging the Kremlin to abide by a 30-day ceasefire and to enter substantive peace talks.
CNN has previously reported that surveillance feeds have been showing Ukrainian forces for several weeks that Russia is moving significant numbers of troops and hardware into positions just a few dozen kilometers back from the front line.
Those forces played CNN a video filmed recently showing a vast network of dugouts, tarpaulins and vehicles, carefully spaced along a seemingly endless tree line.
