We’ve been here before, or so it seems, with US President Trump touting he is close to a deal with Iran as the weekend nears.
There are echoes of “The Grand Old Duke of York” – the English nursery rhyme that mocks the futility of military action. York marched his army up and down a hill; similarly, Trump has on 38 times raised expectations of deal before reversing course, tanking briefly buoyant markets.
His war of choice against Iran is exposing limits to the art of his type of deal-making. Iran, which has a history of driving a hard bargain and testing the patience of US presidents with their intransigence, is also stalling.
A former US President, George W. Bush, had something to say about being duped a few years ago, albeit slightly mangling his delivery, “Fool me once, shame on … shame on you. Fool me… You can’t get fooled again!” although the world understood he really meant “fool me twice, shame on me.”
It begs the question are we getting “fooled again” when Trump touts the deal as near done.
He has a lot of reasons, not least to restore confidence in him, to reach a deal this weekend.
A deal with Iran now could gild celebrations for his 80th birthday this weekend, the 250th US independence anniversary and the start of the World Cup – and tee him up for his next trip out on the world stage at the G7 in France.
Sources familiar with the talks say the signing is getting close, talks on phase one are over; they also caveat that phase two, to be completed within 60 days with be more technical and tougher.
Trump may be right, and the end of his war is in sight. But don’t be surprised next week if we are back down the hill again, empty handed.
