When Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago this week, the encounter will mark more than a diplomatic reunion.
For Netanyahu, it’s the opening act of his 2026 reelection bid, in which the US President is positioned to play a starring role.
Israel is officially scheduled to hold elections in October 2026, though that timeline could collapse sooner. Two immediate threats loom over Netanyahu’s coalition: the ultra-Orthodox conscription crisis and the March 2026 budget deadline. Either could trigger early elections.
Netanyahu’s sixth government — spanning 18 years across multiple premierships — has weathered extraordinary turmoil, from the 2023 judicial overhaul that brought hundreds of thousands into the streets, through the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that killed over 1,200 Israelis, to the grinding war that followed, leaving Israel diplomatically isolated and bitterly divided.
Yet Netanyahu has endured. His coalition has outlasted every Israeli government of the past six years, giving him time to restore Israel’s regional deterrence while avoiding substantial inquiry into the decision-making preceding its unprecedented security lapse on October 7, 2023.
Recurring opinion polls since October 2023 show his coalition falling short of the 61-seat Knesset majority needed to govern, hovering between 49 and 54 seats. His reelection strategy appears to hinge on a simple calculation: Run as far as possible from the failure of October 7, and count on Trump to help rewrite that narrative at the ballot.
“The US president is going to be central – if not the lead – in Netanyahu’s reelection strategy,” said Nadav Shtrauchler, a political strategist who previously worked for the prime minister.
The alliance has precedents. During Israel’s tumultuous 2019-2020 election cycles, Likud plastered Israeli streets with billboards showing Trump and Netanyahu shaking hands, emblazoned with “Netanyahu, in a different league.” Trump delivered symbolic gestures at critical campaign junctures: recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in 2019, unveiling an earlier Palestinian peace plan in 2020 and spearheading the Abraham Accords.
More recently, Trump championed Netanyahu’s pardon campaign, publicly appealing to Israeli President Isaac Herzog during an October address to the Knesset celebrating the Gaza ceasefire. “Hey, I have an idea, Mr. President – why don’t you give him a pardon?” Trump asked, dismissing Netanyahu’s corruption charges as trivial matters of “cigars and champagne.”
The episode set off a Likud-aligned campaign that culminated in Netanyahu’s own formal request for clemency. In a video accompanying his submission, Netanyahu referenced Trump’s advocacy, asserting it would “enable both leaders to promote vital interests during a time of fleeting opportunity.”
Shtrauchler identifies that Knesset address as “de facto the launch of his election campaign, managed by the best campaigner in the world, Donald Trump.”
“Trump will probably reappear on Netanyahu’s campaign posters as he has in the past,” Strauchler said. “His presence will hover over the campaign. But it’s about quality, not quantity.”
And indeed, a well-informed Likud source familiar with the planning says Netanyahu has already discussed hosting Trump in Israel during his campaign, for a second visit since his return to the White House.
The Israeli prime minister’s office declined a CNN request for comment.
The numbers explain why. A September 2025 Gallup poll on Israeli life showed US leadership approval among Israelis at 76%, compared to Israel government leadership’s 40%. The Gaza ceasefire deal, credited to Trump’s mediation and determination, only strengthened the US president’s Israeli brand.
Netanyahu’s pitch, Israeli insiders assess, will focus on diplomatic spectacles: Expanding the Abraham accords, normalization with Saudi Arabia, and reshaping the Middle East – all symbiotic with Trump’s desire for a Nobel Peace Prize, which Jerusalem is actively promoting. Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana, a Netanyahu loyalist, recently teamed with US House Speaker Mike Johnson to launch a global parliamentary initiative urging leaders worldwide to support Trump’s nomination for the 2026 award.
“The most important thing for Netanyahu’s is his legacy,” Shtrauchler said. “His message will be that he has achieved much, but his mission isn’t over – there’s still the Iranian threat, and there are still peace deals to be made.”
Yet Trump’s vision of historic Middle East peace has not materialized and still faces significant obstacles. The Gaza ceasefire is fragile, with Trump pressing Israel to accelerate Phase 2 – but no international force has materialized to govern Gaza, and prospects of Hamas disarming seem remote. Arab countries that were expected to rush into the Abraham Accords remain hesitant, and Saudi normalization is still distant.
Divides exist in other regional theaters. On Syria, Trump’s embrace of the Al-Sharaa regime contrasts with Israel’s determination to maintain a buffer zone. On Lebanon, Washington pushes for diplomacy while Jerusalem doubts Beirut’s ability to restrain Hezbollah without another military campaign.
Iran remains a critical flashpoint, with Israel closely monitoring Tehran’s nuclear enrichment and growingly concerned with its ballistic missile activities. Both leaders touted the brief “12-day war” as a triumph, but Tehran’s nuclear and missile ambitions have hardly slowed. Israeli officials doubt Trump will rush to authorize another major Israeli military operation against Iran, particularly after the fallout after Israel’s controversial September strike on Hamas leadership in Doha.
White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said in a statement, “Israel has had no better friend in its history than President Trump.”
“We continue to work closely with our ally Israel to successfully implement the President’s 20 Point Plan for Peace and strengthen regional security in the Middle East,” Kelly said. “As he has repeatedly stated in his first and second terms, the President is committed to ensuring Iran never obtains a nuclear weapon.”
The most politically charged arena is still Gaza, where Trump seeks progress on the next phase, while Netanyahu faces constraint from his right-wing coalition resisting any further withdrawals. Israeli sources suggest Netanyahu may seek approval for one more military operation inside Gaza before agreeing to advance the ceasefire – a final show of force to satisfy his partners before making further concessions.
“Netanyahu is not operating in a vacuum,” notes a former Israeli official. “Jared Kushner and other key figures surrounding Trump, as well as Trump’s Gulf allies and friends in Turkey and Qatar, are growing frustrated with Netanyahu’s delays on the Gaza ceasefire plan and are wary of any maneuver that could derail broader regional stability.”
Netanyahu’s approach, these sources indicate, likely involves assembling a comprehensive linkage package: progress in Gaza tied to security guarantees against Iran and Lebanon, accommodation of domestic political timelines, and potentially support for his pardon campaign.
“Netanyahu always works the linkages,” a senior Israeli official said. “He trades movement on one front for compensation on another. It seems likely he will need to hand phase 2 to Trump, so the key question is what he will get in return – US backing for another strike in Iran’s nuclear facilities, for instance, or support for military action in Lebanon.”
Even if historic breakthroughs don’t materialize, Trump offers something equally valuable: attention. Every presidential tweet, visit or statement will dominate headlines, steal the spotlight from Netanyahu’s opponents and give Israelis something else to discuss besides the failure of October 7.
“I believe their alliance is very strong and grounded in understanding and shared views,” Shtrauchler said. “There may be disagreements or clashes, but they see eye to eye and are capable of working them out. Until now, they’ve been coordinated all along. Netanyahu delayed many moves until Trump’s election victory – and he expects to receive the same support in return.”
In past races, Trump’s interventions helped Netanyahu avoid defeat – but never secured a decisive victory. Between 2019 and 2021, he failed to form a stable coalition, eventually triggering five elections in four years.
Trump remains probably the most powerful card in Netanyahu’s political deck – but as close history shows, that may not be enough to grant him a winning hand.
CNN’s Donald Judd contributed to this report.
