A former advisor to US State Department and a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council in Washington, Thomas Warrick, sat down for an exclusive interview with Al-Masry Al-Youm where he discussed the war on Iran, the causes behind it, and its possible end.
Interview
Why did the United States rush to launch a war against Iran on February 28th? And why did the attack occur during the nuclear negotiations?
US President Donald Trump received a report from his envoys, Steve Wittkopf and Jared Kushner, after the Geneva meeting on February 26. Wittkopf described their negotiations with the Iranians in detail, after which Trump concluded that the Iranians were planning to cheat by attempting to enrich uranium to an unlimited level of 20 percent through a loophole in the research reactor, and that Iran was not interested in handing over uranium enriched to 60 percent.
This, coupled with the Iranian team’s refusal to provide a written copy of their proposal, led Trump to believe that the Iranians were unwilling to enter into an agreement that would abandon their path toward acquiring a nuclear weapon.
You’re mentioned the idea of conviction, and this falls under the category of good or bad faith. Wasn’t this a huge blow compared to the scale of the international losses?
Undoubtedly, there was a misunderstanding on both sides, but this was a grave negotiating error on the Iranian side.
There’s no doubt the Iranians didn’t trust the Trump administration after the events of June 2025, but the offer they presented to Wittkopf and Kushner convinced the Americans that reaching an agreement was impossible and that the Iranians weren’t negotiating in good faith.
In your opinion, Trump claims that Iran’s military capabilities have been eliminated, yet we see Tehran continuing to launch attacks on Israeli and American bases.
I believe that both the US and Iran are trying to claim a military victory. International public opinion is another front in this war, no less important than what is happening in the skies over Iran and the Gulf.
While the number of Iranian missiles and drones launched is decreasing, and their factories that produce more are being destroyed, Iran continues to demonstrate that it possesses sufficient stockpiles to continue the strikes, albeit at a reduced pace.
So far, who is the winner and who is the loser in this war – or is it a zero-sum game?
It is too early to determine the winners and losers. Iran’s military power has significantly declined, and a war between Israel and Hezbollah will help to understand who emerges victorious or defeated.
Did Washington anticipate Iran’s response and its strength?
Undoubtedly, President Trump’s military advisors briefed him on Iran’s capabilities. They anticipated destroying a large part of Iran’s ability to project power, but they may have misjudged Iran’s willingness to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, assuming the Iranians would not take such an action.
Why focus on targeting Iranian leaders, and who is responsible for the killing of 170 students at the Minab school in Iran?
Trump believes that, following his success in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, removing Iranian leaders who refuse serious negotiations will lead to the rise of an Iranian leader willing to negotiate seriously.
However, this may not happen quickly, given the increasing control of the Revolutionary Guard over security decisions.
As for what happened in Minab, any death of innocent civilians during war is undoubtedly a tragedy, and the missile attack on the Shajarat Tayyiba Elementary School in Minab was certainly one.
However, it appears to have been a tragic accident. The building had originally been, for many years, part of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard base. Some years ago, its location was listed in a US military database of legitimate targets. When the building was converted into a girls’ school, the Iranian government, as expected, did not notify the United States of the conversion.
It is likely that the US military did not notice this when reviewing and updating its databases every few years. This type of error is rare.
Do you think Washington would withdraw from the region if all its military bases were destroyed?
No, that’s unlikely.
American bases will remain in the region as long as the US and the host countries desire. This war will likely push the Gulf Arab states toward closer security cooperation with the US, given that Iran’s attacks demonstrate its willingness to use force against the Gulf states.
Iran’s actions are known to be completely unacceptable to the Gulf Arab states.
It is still uncertain whether serious negotiations are taking place. Trump says Iran has agreed, but Tehran denies this. What is the truth?
Trump prefers to resolve disputes with Iran through diplomacy, but he is prepared to use military force if necessary. President Trump wants to see fundamental changes in Iran’s policies, including not developing or pursuing nuclear weapons, not supporting proxy armies in other countries, not threatening countries in the region, and not oppressing the Iranian people.
But recently, Iran has demanded compensation. Will you accept this?
No, the United States will absolutely not accept such conditions, and this is unacceptable to American negotiators.
Do you expect the US-Iranian conflict to escalate into a global conflict or world war if the Strait of Hormuz is permanently closed?
I think not, because simply put, China will not go to war over this, and Russia is completely preoccupied with Ukraine. An international coalition might form to keep the strait open, but that would be to prevent Iran from disrupting international trade.
Have you noticed any assistance from China, Russia, or North Korea to Iran?
We know that China has provided Iran with raw materials for rocket fuel and has stated that it will supply it with advanced missiles, but it is not yet known whether any have been delivered.
Russia supplies Iran with military equipment via the Caspian Sea, and Iran and North Korea have announced plans to support each other, but it is unclear how serious these plans are.
Will Washington use nuclear weapons?
No, the United States will not use nuclear weapons or force against Iran.
How do you interpret Trump’s statements that he is giving Iran a grace period to halt military strikes on energy facilities in order to negotiate, while Iran denies any negotiations are taking place?
Both sides are speaking in harsh terms, each trying to convince the oil and financial markets of its version of events. President Trump’s statements are impacting global oil and financial markets, while Iran’s statements are affecting international shipping and insurance markets. In fact, several international mediators have held talks with both sides in recent days. Both Pakistan and the United States have acknowledged Islamabad’s potential to play a constructive role. There are some points of agreement between the two sides, but deep and fundamental differences remain between Iran and the United States.
So, when will this war end?
All wars eventually end, and most end through diplomacy.
This war will end when both sides agree that peace is the best way to achieve their national goals, rather than war.
But we haven’t reached that point yet, and the fighting looks set to continue for several more weeks.
The US understands that if the Strait of Hormuz is opened and kept open by military force, Iran will lose its leverage. However, it’s also possible that Iran won’t agree to a ceasefire on terms acceptable to the US.
Another possibility is a ceasefire that lasts until Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program, at which point the US will launch further strikes to destroy any rebuilt facilities.
