It appears that we all–government and people, Muslims and Copts–are inclined to believe that the Alexandria church bombing, which took place on New Year’s Eve and left 21 people dead and scores more injured, was carried out by Al-Qaeda. However, we should keep in mind that our fear of the unknown sometimes drives us into uncertain territory.
At such an early point in investigations, all possibilities should remain on the table. There are at least four reasons why Al-Qaeda may have executed the attack.
First, extremist Salafis never made their animosity to Christians a secret, and they have used Arabs’ inferiority complex vis-à-vis the West, combined with the fact that the West is predominantly Christian, to become more extreme.
Second, a group associated with Al-Qaeda in Iraq recently announced plans to target Egyptian churches in retaliation for alleged incarceration of Muslim coverts in Egyptian churches.
Third, terror groups have encountered increasing difficulties in the past few years to carry out their operations in the West and countries occupied by the West. This reality may have pushed some groups to seek out new, more vulnerable sites for their crimes.
Fourth, the symbolism of the attack’s timing, only minutes after the official new year began, is typical of Al-Qaeda, which carefully selects the timing for its operations.
We have to bear in mind several facts, the first of which is the distinction between Al-Qaeda, “the group” and Al-Qaeda, “the set of beliefs and ideas.” As a result from the group’s dismantling in the aftermath of the 11 September attacks, the group's beliefs and ideas took precedence over the organization’s formal structure. Al-Qaeda’s once systematic pyramidal decision-making process degenerated into scattered, autonomous cells with increasing freedom to make independent decisions. These cells have broken down further into individual adherents inspired by Al-Qaeda who choose their own targets.
What is known as The Millennium Plot indicated this trend well before the 11 September attacks. An Algerian by the name of Ahmed Ressam illegally immigrated to the US from Canada in 1999, filled his car trunk with explosives, and plotted to bomb an airport in Los Angeles. On his way to carrying out the operation, he phoned one of his friends, requesting him to ask Osama Bin Laden if he would like to claim responsibility for the operation.
Second, this was the first time that an operation attributed to Al-Qaeda was carried out without us hearing that the suicide bomber would go to paradise by killing Christians.
This does not, however, deny Al-Qaeda’s link to the bombing. Rather, it may indicate the fact that Al-Qaeda's ideas have spread among desperate people who selectively choose which components of Al-Qaeda's beliefs to adopt.
The shift in the fundamental nature of Al-Qaeda is both good and bad news for Egypt. The bright side of the shift is that investigators prefer a reversion to an investigative logic-based pattern of thinking, whereas confronting a suicide bomber who insists on dying has proven far more difficult. The bad news is that the shift has allowed terrorism to expand its influence by invading fresh geographical areas.
Third, the Western experience with terrorism has taught us that adopting an investigative approach to crimes is better than thinking of those acts as exclusively motivated by religion. Perhaps that is why Britain's response to the 7 July metro bombings was more effective than the US reaction to the 11 September attacks. This perspective not only preserves the national unity but also forces terrorists into the margins of society.
Too little information has come to light as of now for us to make educated guesses about how the incident occurred.
Was the car used in the bombing stolen? Was it recently painted? What does its number plate say? What is the amount of explosives used? Were those explosives made at home? Have the pharmacies in Alex sold any substances that can be used to make a bomb? Do we know when exactly the car arrived at the scene? Were there any surveillance cameras? Does the car wreckage tell anything about where the car began its journey? Those are just some questions that need to be answered with integrity and professionalism.
For any crime to occur, both the motive and the capability to carry it out must necessarily exist. Although Al-Qaeda is clearly motivated to carry out such attacks, it may not always have the capability.
We have to steer clear of groundless predictions about how the act was perpetrated. The real disgrace would be to ignore the case’s facts and leave the real perpetrators unpunished.
Translated from the Arabic Edition.
