Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for the near future, citing escalating geopolitical risks and an increased likelihood of crude supply disruptions from the Middle East.
The bank now expects Brent crude to reach US$ 105 per barrel by this coming December, up from its previous estimate of $90, and has also increased its average price forecast for 2027 to $88 per barrel, a 10 percent rise from its earlier projection.
According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs analysts noted that risks to oil supplies could keep the “risk premium” elevated in the near term.
This comes as market concerns grow regarding potential geopolitical escalation following the US midterm elections.
Analysts added that the escalation of attacks on ships and damage to infrastructure, combined with the repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war, could lead to further disruptions in oil markets.
In its baseline scenario for 2027, the bank included the possibility of a disruption to global supplies amounting to approximately one million barrels per day.
In the most optimistic price scenario, Brent crude could rise to $140 per barrel, with an average price of around $130 per barrel over the coming year, provided that production from Gulf states remains approximately 3.5 million barrels per day below 2025 average levels, according to Reuters.
Conversely, in a bearish scenario oil futures prices could fall below $ 70 per barrel if production in the region recovers more rapidly and supplies return to the market at a faster pace.
Edited translation from Al-Masry Al-Youm
